This is the graph of the world’s best-established temperature dataset, of NASA GISS. It shows another good representation of the 1997-1998 El Niño world average temperature peak.

Recent years have been net influenced by La Niña state, as shown in this graph – although also the 2005 and 2010 temperature records have been provoked by short/weak El Niño events, taking place in late 2004 and late 2009. From 2010 La Niña has dominated. This will change.

According to the NASA GISS dataset the last strong El Niño (1997-1998) created a peak of approximately 0.2 degrees Celsius – and thereby the ‘hottest year’ of the entire 20th century. Meanwhile the average world temperatures have risen almost exactly that much, 0.2 degrees Celsius, which means any new El Niño event (especially as we have solar maximum – and prevented we don’t have major tropical explosive volcano eruptions) is very likely to set a new world temperature record, breaking those of 1998, 2005 and 2010.

As latest runs shows El Niño may already arrive in May, there is good chance sufficient atmospheric heat storage will take place over the second half of this year, to make 2014 the new record holder. If El Niño will continue into the northern hemisphere winter, this record is very likely to be broken straight away next year, with an ‘all-time’ heat record for 2015.

© Rolf Schuttenhelm | www.bitsofscience.org