Tag Archives: El Niño

ENSO forecast: La Niña at least up to April 2012, El Niño possible

Comparing the different ENSO forecast models we conclude the first half of 2012 will most likely (on average) be dominated by the current La Niña phase. Most models however show progression towards neutral and some to El Niño before the … Continue reading →

Droughts in Horn of Africa have been common for last 20,000 years

This year’s catastrophic drought in Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia is thought to be an indirect consequence of the 2010-2011 La Niña. As part of ENSO cycles such droughts come and go – and have been typical for the region … Continue reading →

Missing heat 2000-2009 indeed deeper in ocean, says NCAR model

As a regular of Bitsofscience.org you may recall a publication on ocean warming [between 2003-2010] in Geophysical Research Letters from last July. That one was little-noticed by the world’s media, but now its findings may receive more attention, as an … Continue reading →

Ancient clams disprove permanent El Niño theory

The prevailing theory and fear that rising global temperatures could result in permanent El Niño conditions have been called into question by an international research team on the basis of growth rings of prehistoric clams. A transition to a permanent … Continue reading →

Lull in upper ocean warming explained through ENSO – warming trend continues

Shortly after an El Niño event there is elevated heat exchange from the upper ocean layers to the cosmos over the tropical Pacific Ocean. In the North Atlantic Ocean, variations in the ocean circulation affect the heat exchange to the … Continue reading →

Climate trend: weaker Atlantic trade winds?

Over the past 60 years the easterly trade winds over the tropical Atlantic Ocean have decreased in strength, say Hiroki Tokinaga and Shang-Ping Xie of the University of Hawai. The pattern suggests a permanent ‘Atlantic El Niño’, changed precipitation over … Continue reading →