Searching for Real Global Temperature Trend, part 2 – Global Dimming: if aerosol cooling is underestimated, then warming trend is higher

Yes. It’s been a while, but we have an update in our Today’s Paradox series: If aerosol climate cooling is underestimated, that means the trend line of the global temperature graph would lie higher than the one you get by “evening-out La Niña and El Niño,” and global climatic warming would speed up (further) in decades to come. That would also mean current peaks in global temperature, like February 2016, might not be peaks – but rather ‘corrections’ towards that higher actual trend.

But is it? Lets skip another breakfast, and read another proper journal. Got coffee? We are investigating!

Global dimming aerosol cooling - CO2 vs SO2 emissions, Nature
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Mistaken headlines due to IEA report. In fact global CO2 emissions reached dramatic new record in 2015. Good news is ‘Energy’, not ‘Climate’

But the problem is, no one is properly measuring. We again point to the Keeling curve – this time NOAA’s ‘global average’ atmospheric CO2 concentration over the last 5 years. Very easy to conclude world media are annoyingly wrong today, stating CO2 emissions ‘have stabilised’, while in fact we just broke the all-time CO2 emissions record.

No, we are clearly not on track to do what actually needs to be done, not stabilising CO2 emissions, but stabilising CO2 concentration instead – because, what everyone always seems to forget, CO2 works cumulative:

CO2 emissions record 2015
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Searching for Real Global Temperature Trend amidst storm of climate records, part 1 – Likelihood: “99.9999%” there IS a trend

It’s 2016 now and 2016 is becoming a whole different story than 2015, that in turn was a whole different story than 2014. But still, also heat-record-breaking 2014 remains an interesting case – as that year broke the then-proclaimed temperature plateau (which of course was never there) – and because 2014 was not an El Niño year (although it was developing in deeper waters), but an ENSO neutral year.

As it currently rains climate records – we become increasingly interested to find out where the actual temperature trend lies, and especially if perhaps it might be higher than we previously thought, and current records are no mere ‘peaks on the graph’, but in fact climatic catch-up manoevres, placing global climatic warming in an even higher gear – and if so, further deteriorating climatic projections for the rest of this century.

No. It’s not that we like bad news. We like facts – and everything that comes close. A little order in the chaos. And that in our view means you need to read established scientific journals while you skip breakfast. Today it’s Nature – and an interesting new study by Michael Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf and other climatologists, that was published on 24 January:

Observed and modelled global temperature rise - records right on trend
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Important update: Here is why crazy February temperature record is NOT the result of El Niño

Yesterday we pointed out that it is odd that it is actually the NASA GISS temperature dataset that shows the largest temperature anomaly for February 2016, namely 1.35 degrees Celsius above the 1955-1980 baseline. Indeed, a monthly deviation that really stretches the definition of a climate record.

Now before everyone on the internet starts shouting ‘El Niño‘ – let’s first realise that normally NASA GISS shows smaller peaks & dips for El Niño and La Niña, like we explained yesterday.

So something else is going on. And we have an idea. Let the below two images do the rest of the talking, comparing ‘Super El Niño February 2016’ with the previous ‘Super El Niño February’, of 1998 – both temperature anomaly charts derived from that same GISS dataset:

Take a look at this: in February 2016 the Arctic was 11.5 degrees Warmer
Temperature anomaly chart for February 2016 of NASA GISS. Take a look at the Arctic: +11.5 degrees Celsius above the 1955-1980 climate average. Is this an El Niño pattern? Well, compare with the below version of the same chart, for the latest ‘Super El Niño February’:
During the El Niño February of 1998 the high Arctic was actually cooler than average
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NASA GISS data shows most insane spike on global average temperature for February 2016

We’ve written about the insane temperature records for January and February 2016 before. But judging by the well-established dataset of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies – we may have underestimated the extremity of the temperature deviation still:

NASA GISS graph world temperature shows extreme peak for February
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Comparing CO2 emissions per capita: living a full year in the US, Germany, China, India – or booking 4 random flights from London Heathrow

All right. What we’re gonna do today is hardly science. But it is based on decent World Bank statistics for China, India, Germany and the US (which sadly have not yet been updated since 2011) and a CO2 calculator that seems pretty reliable, to get a sense of the cumulative CO2 emissions for just four flights from London Heathrow.

Firstly though it is a good thing to understand what ‘CO2 emissions per capita’ actually mean. You’re mistaken to think that is the emissions from your direct energy consumption only – it also includes your ‘fair share’ of non-personal emitters in your country – like heavy industry, transport sector and agriculture.

It however does not include aviation emissions. You see these Boeings flying overhead? None of them are counted – not in your country, not in any country. That is because airplanes often land in a different country than the one they take off from, and countries as you know can be really childish when it comes to splitting burdens.

Graph of CO2 emissions per capita, plus flying
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Another shocking climate record: Despite the talk, atmospheric CO2 rise accelerating, never before this fast, carbon feedbacks tip Earth past 404 ppm!

It’s three months since ‘world leaders’ agreed during the climate summit in Paris that climatic warming must be limited to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Yesterday’s news came from Hawaii, where the world’s best annual measurements show that the rise of the atmospheric CO2 concentration is not slowing down, but accelerating instead. Just one year after we breached 400 ppm, we breached 403 – and in February the CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa stood at 404.02 ppm where 12 months earlier it was at 400.26.

That rise is faster than ever before:

Graph CO2 rise accelerating
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Climate Record Update: Did northern hemisphere breach +2C climate target in early March, or did we ‘just’ breach +1.5?

Baselines, baselines, baselines, everyone. What goes for emission reduction targets also goes for temperature measurements: Let’s stick together! The graph in our first post had some fawlty measurements. But we STILL breached pre-industrial +2(!)

Take a close look at below graph – today’s update. That extreme peak around March 3 has been removed. But you’re mistaken to think we just touched +1.5 – see the base periode! 1981-2010. That means these temperatures are compared to the global average of around 1995. And that you can add another ~0.7 degrees. The northern hemisphere did indeed breach pre-industrial +2.

Northern hemisphere still breached pre-industrial +2 degrees Celsius!
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Extreme Climate Warning: Northern hemisphere has just breached the pre-industrial +2 degrees climate target – leave rest of fossil carbon in the ground, negative emissions needed

UPDATE: Graph was flawed, but northern hemisphere did breach 2 degrees

Just two days ago we had our (‘mildest’/’warmest’/’hottest ever recorded’) winter update, based on the surpassing global temperature records for December, January – and the preliminary data for February.

Now at the onset of March we’re confronted with a graph that shows it’s getting worse still: For the first time on record the entire northern hemisphere (where most of Earth’s land masses lie) has breached the historical temperature limit of +2 degrees Celsius over the pre-industrial baseline. 2016 might add another 0.2 degrees to the global temperature of 2015. We can really stop drilling now!

Temperature graph shows northern hemisphere breached 2 degrees climate target
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