According to NOAA’s NCEP climate prediction model the Pacific Niño 3.4 region may experience more than a +1.5 degrees Celsius sea surface temperature anomaly, then officially qualifying as ‘strong El Niño’ – shown in graph below.

NOAA NCEP forecasts possibly strong El Niño in second half of 2014

SST anomaly charts per month show El Niño conditions strengthening over boreal spring, summer to autumn of 2014. Noteworthy is especially the prolonged and pronounced positive temperature anomaly in North American Pacific waters.

El Niño 2014: Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly forecast per month.

Compared to other climate models NCEP shows relatively strong El Niño development, although also the IRI ensemble forecasts are increasingly pointing towards at least weak-to-moderate El Niño, possibly already from June 2014.

© Rolf Schuttenhelm | www.bitsofscience.org