Bits of Climate

Real Global Temperature Trend, p21 – Science is ruthless. We have ‘about zero’ years of emissions to stay below 1.5 degrees

That is if you correct for one important piece of scientific criticism to the below graph. But even if you prefer to ignore what may seem the nitty gritty of climatology and accept a maximum global carbon budget of 8.9 … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p20 – Combining thermal inertia & carbon cycle inertia: 1 decade extra warming after emissions stop

Apart of course from the amount of greenhouse gases we keep pumping into the atmosphere, there are mainly three factors that determine the amount of warming we will experience in the near future: CO2 climate sensitivity, ocean thermal inertia, and … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p19 – There is hot, hotter, hottest – and 2016: dangerously close to pre-industrial +1.5 degrees…

The 19th edition of our global temperature trend series is ‘just a graph’. That is because we are still overwhelmed by Break Free 2016. And because some graphs simply speak for themselves. The progression of the 2016 hottest year global … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p18 – Now how high is climate sensitivity? Here’s the answer of the world’s 16 leading climate experts!

If you have any affinity with climate science, this should interest you – probably a lot: Piers Forster, James Hansen, Gavin Schmidt, Alan Robock, Michael Mann, Ken Caldeira, Stefan Rahmstorf, Chris Forest, Gabriele Hegerl, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Jonathan Gregory, Drew … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p17 – Climate System Thermal Inertia is lower when you don’t assume CO2 flatline

Oceans, oceans, oceans. You thought the atmosphere was complex? Well, just take a look at the oceans. Oddly shaped features with disturbing cycles and conveyor belt currents. Home of the octopus, the blue whale and a Mariana Trench full of … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p16 – Climate System Thermal Inertia: Trend Line = 0.6C higher than observed temperatures show

In part 16 of our temperature trend series we take a better look at one of the main reasons almost everyone still underestimates climate urgency: ‘Thermal inertia’ of the climate system – a delay between the moment of emissions of … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p15 – 2016-2020 global forecast: 5-year average temperatures above 2015 record, despite La Niña

It’s raining climate records since late 2014. That has increased to a proper storm from October 2015 – the first month to show global temperature anomalies of more than 1 degree above the 1951-1980 climate average (so higher still above … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p14 – Just one more to go and world has 12 monthly records in a row – temperature jump +0.2 degrees

Yes, if you would extrapolate the global temperature “trend” line from early 2015 to early 2016, you would look at a 20 degrees Celsius warming over the century. March broke the record of all Marches. February broke the record of … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p13 – First 3 months 2016 are top 3 hottest months on record, 2016 now certain new hottest year

2014 was the hottest year on record. 2015 is the hottest year on record. January, February & March were the three hottest months on record (with December 2015 now number 4). 2016 will be the hottest year on record. Yes, … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p12 – March breaks February record, says JMA. Have +1C peaks become new monthly norm?

We knew that in early March the northern hemisphere broke the 2 degrees pre-industrial temperature limit. We did not expect it would also break February’s global record. But it did. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) that ‘insane temperature … Continue reading →