Author Archives: Rolf Schuttenhelm

Understanding Sea Level Rise, p2: A short chronology of SLR forecasts for the year 2100 (showing they increase with time)

Sea level rise is a slow process. Other consequences of climate change are generally felt much sooner. But there is something odd about the forecasts. They seem to be catching up with us, bringing a distant future closer to our … Continue reading →

Understanding Sea Level Rise, part 1: Thermal Expansion – a Physical Foundation of several metres, irrespective of ice melting

In between our series about the global temperature trend and our (upcoming) series about climate & biodiversity, let’s do a short series about sea level rise, shall we?

Do the math! Because climate sensitivity is logarithmic, 1.5 degrees target was already breached at 400 ppm – if you look at CO2 only (& assume ECS = 3C)

According to ‘conventional climate science’ the currently already emitted amount of CO2 (404 ppm) leads to a committed warming of 1.56 degrees Celsius. To keep ‘the promise of Paris’ – the CO2 concentration must go down, down to below 400 … Continue reading →

Observed vs ‘Real’ Global Temperature. What thermometers do & don’t yet show!

After a perceived ‘temperature plateau‘ of about a decade, global temperatures seem to be rising faster than ever before. First 2014 broke the global record for hottest year (then held by 2010). Then 2015 broke that record. And 2016 in … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p25 – Paleoclimate experts to the rescue! Closer to 1-2 degrees Celsius in pipeline from long-term climate inertia

We would keep the story simpler, helpful real-world paleoclimate experts advise us: ‘Say the Pliocene was 2 to 3 degrees warmer than pre-industrial Holocene – at a CO2 concentration that is about as high as the one that’s currently measured, … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p24 – Paleoclimate tells we may have 3 degrees additional warming in pipeline at current CO2 concentration!

Either the entire world is set to experience dramatic additional warming once we stabilise at the current (400+ ppm) CO2 concentration – or we are still dramatically underestimating the local climate sensitivity of the Arctic – a region that might … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p23 – Climate sensitivity has large geographical spread: 2-3 degrees global average equals 6+ in the Arctic

Why climate change is such a killer? Because disruption is never a linear process. We see that with ecosystem disintegration – where beyond a certain threshold cascading damage sets in – leading to shifts and collapse scenarios that are easy … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p22 – World still on course for dramatic 3 degrees warming, need to more than double reduction speed

Let’s keep this one short, because in essence there’s nothing new. Before the start of the Paris climate summit we saw that if you combine all the world’s nations’ 2025 & 2030 emission reduction targets you get to a pathway … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p21 – Science is ruthless. We have ‘about zero’ years of emissions to stay below 1.5 degrees

That is if you correct for one important piece of scientific criticism to the below graph. But even if you prefer to ignore what may seem the nitty gritty of climatology and accept a maximum global carbon budget of 8.9 … Continue reading →

Real Global Temperature Trend, p20 – Combining thermal inertia & carbon cycle inertia: 1 decade extra warming after emissions stop

Apart of course from the amount of greenhouse gases we keep pumping into the atmosphere, there are mainly three factors that determine the amount of warming we will experience in the near future: CO2 climate sensitivity, ocean thermal inertia, and … Continue reading →