Author Archives: Rolf Schuttenhelm

ENSO forecast: La Niña at least up to April 2012, El Niño possible

Comparing the different ENSO forecast models we conclude the first half of 2012 will most likely (on average) be dominated by the current La Niña phase. Most models however show progression towards neutral and some to El Niño before the … Continue reading →

NASA GISS: 2011 9th-warmest year on record – hot for a strong La Niña

Graph of the day: world temperature record between 1880 and 2011, showing annual and 5-year mean temperature, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) data. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory, Robert Simmon.

When the ice goes, so does the rainforest – boreal warming linked to Amazon droughts

We knew there must have been a connection between climate warming and damaging droughts in the world’s largest rainforest, as the two globally hottest years on record (2005 and 2010) coincide with the two record droughts in the Amazon – … Continue reading →

He who controls ENSO rules all: even flu pandemics now connected to La Niña – 2012 virus forecast

If this is true best stack up on your supply of antiviral drugs, because there would be an above-average chance of experiencing another influenza pandemic during the approaching northern hemisphere spring or summer of 2012 (as indeed La Niña is … Continue reading →

Today’s paradox: global warming may offset Criegee cooling

And that’s not quite the same as having things the other way around. If you see Criegee biradicals as silver bullet, remember they are already constantly being fired up…

No more ‘horror winters’ for Europe – not for several years ahead – and indeed also not this year

Extremely cold winters for Europe persisting for several months are very rare. The last one to fit the definition occurred in 1963, almost half a century ago. Still many weather forecasters and media seem inclined (as again happened this year) … Continue reading →

Nuclear future on balance: world has not responded to Fukushima, Europe has

And of course Japan has too – as suffering such damage demands a general policy reevaluation. Apparently different political systems apply different forms of logic, a new report states. But we have just one investment market…